By Dr. Suleiman Walhad 13-09-2024

Ethiopia is administratively organized into twelve ethnic-based states and they are the Afar, the Amhara, the Benishangul-Gumuz, the Gambela, the Harari; the Oromia, the Somali, the Central Ethiopia, the South Ethiopia, the Southwest, the Tigray, and the Sidama states. There are also two federally adminitered cities, namely Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. The administrative structure was put in place in August 2023 and replaces every other previous administrative infrastructure of the Ethiopian state.

The new administrative infrastructure has only contributed to the worsening fragility of the state, which no longer, seems to be satisfying the mosaic of peoples that were put together without being given a choice by the emperors of the last two centuries. Every nation-state within the nation now wants it share of the pie without taking into consideration the global need of the country or independence. We must be looking at a potential former Yugoslavia of the 21st century.

It is a common feature of all fragile states, including neighboring Somalia where a breakdown of the central authority of the state some thirty-three years ago still seems to be solidly in place as when it began to break at the seams, despite the past twelve years of federalism or the third Somali republic.

The over 80 ethnic groups of Ethiopia and hence inter-ethnic tensions thereof has not helped and is only increasing with the more powerful and larger states within the state asserting their intentions through military force and hence fighting the Ethiopian Federal state. These include the Tigray, the Amhara states, the Oromia states and to some extent the Benishangul-Gumuz.

It is surprising that the Somali state, the largest ethnic state territory within the Ethiopian Federal state remains calm despite the growing conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia. It would appear that this could be the calm before the storm. The Somali State of Ethiopia was historically the one region which was never calm from the creation of the Ethiopian State at the end of the nineteenth century, which was finally consolidated in 1954, when Britain handed over the last Somali territory, the Hawd and Reserve Area, to Ethiopia.

The Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 seems to be dead now and the TPLF has broken down into two factions with the larger faction rejecting how the Ethiopia Federal Government has handled the accord. In the meanwhile, the armed Amhara militia has gained strength and is attracting not only politicians but also military personnel, academicians, religious leaders, indeed, the elite and the general Amhara public to their side. FANO is gaining strength.

The Oromo Liberation Front (OLA) which has been fighting the Ethiopia Empire-/-Federal state since its inception is also gaining more power and followers, expressing their dislike of the current administration, although it is marked as an Oromo authority.

The conflicts in all these states has only fueled ethnic polarization in the country. A clear indication is the war between the Afar and the Somali states which appears to be driven by the center pushing troubles to export Ethiopia’s problems to the outside, including Somalia and Djibouti. One must note both the Afar and the Somalis who are fighting each other in Ethiopia also live in Djibouti.

The MoU signed with one of the regions of Somalia is another deception to export the internal woes of Ethiopia and blame the difficulties of the country to outside parties, like Somalia or Eritrea and now even Egypt, which seems to have found a way to come to the region through assistance to Somalia. Note Ethiopia and Egypt have their own problems with respect to the Nile waters.

The world is perhaps reading the current Ethiopia regime wrongly as to what it actually wants. A deeper look into the psyche of the current leadership appears to be ethno-driven and hence anger and revenge thereof over the treatment of the Oromo people in the previous administrations of the country in the past.

Although there are inter-Oromo rivalries, there seems to be a push to create a larger Oromia Republic separate and independent from the current Ethiopian state. They have already weakened the Tigray and Amhara states in the north, the traditional strongholds of the Ethiopia state, and now the regime in Ethiopia is turning to the Somai state within Ethiopia and hence indirectly to the Somali Republic itself, which once weakened would allow the Oromo to move on to its agenda of Greater Oromia with ease. This will include not only the Oromia of Ethiopia but also their cousins in Kenya, which will give them access to a sea.

They have gambled on the port request from a region within Somalia as they just wanted to create a diplomatic precedent, when they really embark on their assault on Kenya in the not-too-distant future, should they still be in power in Ethiopia. One must not forget that both Somalis and Oromos live in Kenya, which will eventually breakup with the Oromo taking the southern portions of Northeastern part of Kenya, all the way to Mombasa, and Somalis taking the northern portions closer to Somalia, up from the estuary of Tana River, and hence this will lead to a breakup of Kenya, the powerhouse of the East Africa Community. It is truly a dangerous proposition.

Many would consider this far fetched but the way the Ethiopia state is handling the internal issues of the country is a clear indication of a mindset which seems to be determined to see the end of the Ethiopian empire state. The many internal ethnic-based civil wars in the country is a clear evidence that this is being encouraged by the state itself.

The appearance of an inability to respond to the violence in the country seems to be rooted in the historic grievances and marginalization of the Oromo people and others within the state. The over-securitization of the response to the grievances seems to be designed to increase their anger and revenge on the state.

A good leader of a state usually works on reconciling with his people and making peace among them. A good leader does not cocoon himself in secure palaces, surrounded by multiple layers of security. Although the Ethiopia government has opened doors for dialogue, it does appear to the casual observer, that they were not truly serious. A genuine leader and particularly one endowed with a Nobel Peace Prize could have been travelling throughout the length and breadth of his country talking to his people and at least showing he was fully aware of their issues and problems and would help to the best of his ability.

The same goes for all the countries of the region and in particular the Somali President who travels across the globe in the place of travelling through his country, making peace among his homogenous people. It would have been easier for him to sympathize with his population and their woes.

Many things are not based on money and price. All the peaceful regions of Somalia have been created through local efforts even if they were clannish in nature in the first place. But then the Somali is but one clan in spirit, language, religion, culture and outlook. The president could have exploited that to the full, but so far did not. He still has a chance to play this card – an unsolicited advice.

Looking at the state of the countries of the region, there appears to be other forces in play. The leaders of the region, endowed with the insightful knowledge they have of their peoples and countries, seem to be still playing to non-Horn African tunes. Peace is a pricy commodity and can only be achieved through courage. These who work on wars and conflicts are usually cowardly and they behave in ways unbecoming of leaders, to show their courage and bravery – unnecessary wars and conflicts and showing off their strength and mettle!

There were high hopes some years ago that the region would finally settle down and live in peace after so many years of turmoil. Yet today we find it at the bottom of nations embroiled in conflicts more serious than they were some years ago. It is perhaps time the leaders of the region set aside their differences and embarked on creating a more peaceful region, democratic, law-abiding and stable.

They should not continue on the old ways of false and fake prides when they are all hungry but are still being fed by others. They should sow peace at the ground levels and not at the elite levels, which has not worked. Most of the troubles of the region are, indeed, created by elites who compete against each other without regard to the poor populations of the region.