الأثنين. يونيو 17th, 2024

By Dr. Badra Qaaloul, President of the International Center for Strategic Security and Military Studies

Translated by Wissal Khlifi, Department of Translation and Interpreting

May 26, 2024

Today, the world is undergoing an unprecedented transformation at a rapid pace towards a new global order. This shift is altering the international game, its logic, and its players. For decades, the world has experienced a unipolar system dominated by the United States, which exerted efforts to maintain its ruthless hegemony, positioning itself as the sole leader at the global table.

However, there is no longer room for a US-centric system that disregards the world and imposes policies serving only its interests and greed, often at the expense of weaker nations. These policies, marked by theft of resources and indifference to the needs and stability of other societies and states, are becoming obsolete.

Adopting its selfish and criminally aggressive slogan, “America First,” the US has gone to great lengths to create conflict zones, engage in wars, and blatantly interfere in the affairs of other nations to remain the dominant global power. A significant tool in this agenda has been the creation and manipulation of terrorism.

This led to a global awakening and significant public awareness, especially among societies victimized by the “American colonial machinery,” rejecting this system and challenging it.

Countries are now moving towards a new world order with new alliances and actors, offering a safe haven for nations and peoples experiencing a wave of heightened awareness and true independence.

This analysis explores the foundations, determinants, and directions of this emerging new global system, along with its new actors and the changes on the horizon.

America’s Downfall: The End of Unipolarity

To begin, it is essential to highlight the current state of the US. America has lost its status as the sole superpower across all fronts ; economically and politically. It no longer possesses the authority and influence in foreign affairs as it once did and is unable to engage in direct warfare, resorting instead to proxy wars. This results in nations being left to face uncertain futures, with America causing destruction and then fleeing, focusing on devastation rather than construction.

An apparent example is its disgraceful exit from Afghanistan after twenty years of comprehensive destruction, leaving the nation and its people to face an uncertain destiny filled with destruction, violence, and terrorism. Similarly, in Iraq, the US exits with significant scandals, including the blatant theft of Iraqi oil, gold, and resources.

Despite all this, America continues to cling to its WWII victories and military strength as if the world has not changed, with China rising to economic, cultural, political, military, and technological prominence, especially in Africa, as exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Asian Titan China has even penetrated deep into the US market, yet America, in its arrogance, denies that China has reached its own backyard. The US tries to combat China through the separatist island of Taiwan, using its classic method of creating tension and supporting separatists, an outdated approach, while imposing economic sanctions and attempting to hinder China’s strategic alliances with Russia and India. Organizations like BRICS and ASEAN testify to the emergence of new strategic alliances, signaling the displacement of America’s throne and the rapid emergence of a new world order from Asia. Consequently, the US is floundering “like a raging bull.”

Reasons Leading to the New International Order:

-Rejection of Forced Integrations: Integrations formed through hard power (wars, weaponry, dominance of major powers over smaller ones, geographic expansion through wars, economic sanctions) are no longer acceptable as the world rejects them.

-Rise of Popular Role: Societies now possess awareness and aspirations for a better future, with a strong voice rejecting colonialism and hegemony, contributing to a new global momentum.

-Aspiration for Human Rights and Justice: The world seeks genuine human rights and justice, not just American slogans used for exploitation and intervention in weaker states’ internal affairs.

-Rejection of Unfulfilled Unions: Societies no longer accept unions imposed on them that failed to meet their aspirations, instead contributing to the plundering of their resources and wealth.

-Voluntary and Optional Integration: The world looks forward to voluntary and optional integration among entities and alliances in a new global order, rather than forced integration.

-Exploitation of Natural Resources: The world aims to utilize its natural resources coveted by the West, with African nations particularly showing significant awareness and awakening.

-Overcoming Economic Hegemony: A new global order seeks to overcome economic dominance and reliance on a single currency (the dollar).

-Reevaluation of Internal and External Affairs: The world demands a reexamination of both domestic conditions and external affairs.

Indicators of the New World Order’s Direction

The formation of this new world order is already underway, evidenced by several indicators:

The First Indicator

The rise of nations on the global stage, particularly Russia and China amidst new global developments (the Russia-Ukraine war, global financial crises, Middle Eastern crises, the fall of the American watchdog, Israel, geopolitical changes regionally and globally, US economic sanctions, US encirclement of China, Africa’s rejection of Western colonialism and the expulsion of France from all Sahel and Saharan countries, wars and conflicts in Africa, terrorism, migration, climate change, and the Russo-Western conflict).

In contrast, the decline of Western nations indicates the inevitable arrival of a new global order. These developments signal the actual start of the new world order’s formation. The current system, upheld by Washington, is no longer sustainable. The global political map has changed with the emergence of new nations and the disappearance of old ones, shifting centers of global power and influence. The future points to the end of the current world order, making way for new global powers advocating justice, human ethics, international partnerships, and true international legitimacy.

The Second Indicator

The shift in geopolitical dynamics (“geopolitics”) based on the human and natural resources of countries, resulting in geographic expansion at the expense of other nations, is now leaning towards political and economic relations based on mutual interests.

As such, relations between nations are evolving towards economic development and the influence and role of nations in their regions. The unprecedented normalization between major regional powers exemplifies this shift, as does China’s mediation role in the Middle East. The traditional concept of geopolitics, based on expansion even at the cost of neighboring nations, is now rejected due to its resultant wars and economic losses, leading to the collapse of states.

The Third Indicator

In the current international landscape, the rise of alliances, blocs, and coalitions among specific nations is shaping the contours of the new global order, while existing alliances like NATO are declining. NATO’s role has been reduced to direct conflict and wars, and the United Nations has become ineffective, limited to expressions of concern and condemnation without tangible actions in conflicts, economic collapses, or stopping the genocidal actions of the Israeli occupation in Gaza.

The Fourth Indicator

A new economic system has emerged, moving beyond a single currency (the dollar) towards the use of local currencies and a new basket of currencies.

Features of the New Multipolar World Order:

– The Rise of New Global Powers: These powers enhance their ability to use conciliation policies, embrace the “win-win” theory, avoid interfering in the internal policies of other countries, and learn from the mistakes of unipolar dominance to avoid obstacles in the new global order.

– Collective Action among Rising Powers: Emerging powers like Russia, China, Brazil, and India are working together, moving away from unilateral actions and promoting a multipolar world order.

– Radical Change in the International System: Established after World War II, the current system is being fundamentally altered by new alliances and coalitions, as seen in their conferences and outputs.

– Economic Integration: The new multipolar system aims to bridge the economic gap between developed and developing countries through integration, unlike the exploitation seen under unipolar dominance.

– Promoting Justice and Development: Multipolarity advocates for cooperation and development, resulting in a more just global order and the rise of developing countries.

– Fighting Terrorism: Unlike the unipolar strategy of sowing terrorism to fragment nations, the new order seeks to reveal and combat terrorism genuinely.

– Redefining Foreign Policy: New geopolitical changes direct foreign policies towards influential and significant countries.

– Shift in Actors: The global stage now includes collective Western actors (America and European countries) and emerging Asian powers (Russia, China, and India), moving towards both East and West.

US Strategies to Counter the New World Order:

The United States will not stand idle as the new world order takes shape, with multiple poles and alliances challenging its dominance. Its strategies include:

– Attacking Emerging Coalitions: The US aims to attack new coalitions while maintaining leadership in existing alliances to preserve its unipolar system.

– New Cold War Policies: Engaging in a new cold war with rising powers to prevent their economic and technological ascendancy.

– Countering Asian Influence in Africa: The US is allying with European nations, especially France, to curb Asian influence in Africa, particularly in North and West Africa.

– Fueling Revolts: The US is instigating uprisings against national regimes, especially national armies, as seen in Sudan, and targeting specific countries in Africa, promoting narratives about Wagner’s presence and Russian military activity in southern Tunisia.

– Military Draining: The US seeks to drain China and Russia militarily by supplying Ukraine with various weapons and instigating conflicts in Taiwan.

– Blaming China for COVID-19: The US accuses China of causing unprecedented global financial crises due to the pandemic.

– Energy and Food Wars: These new types of wars are emerging globally, affecting everyone.

– Efforts by the UN and EU: These organizations are working with the US to maintain the current global order in favor of rising nations.

– Relocating Terrorism: By hastily withdrawing from Afghanistan, the US seeks to divert Asian nations from their development and independence goals.

 Key Characteristics of the New Multipolar International Order:

– State-Interventionist Economies: Similar to China, Russia, India, and Brazil (BRICS), serving the interests of all nations and peoples.

– Balanced Political Systems: New unions adopt balanced political systems to manage conflicts, establish a new global charter, and create foreign policies based on respect and justice.

– Social Systems: Addressing common threats, protecting nations and their resources, and fulfilling the needs of peoples.

– Cultural Systems: Promoting new cultural systems as seen with the influence of China and Russia worldwide.

– Legal Systems: Respecting treaties, agreements, and laws between nations.

– Balanced Power Dynamics: Ensuring balance between various power blocs and centers.

 Conclusion

The emergence of a new world order with multiple poles and new alliances depends on collective action to end conflicts globally. Without serious and effective movement (already underway) to prevent wars and disputes, the US’s strategy of creating crises and wars will continue. The challenge for the US is that while it may succeed tactically, it risks strategic failure, leading to erratic actions and contradictory decisions.

 Key Questions:

– Will the US seek new allies to maintain its unipolar status?

– Will it work to preserve the current international system?

– Will it align with rising powers, despite current indicators suggesting otherwise?

– Or will it strive to be a significant player among new global actors, participating in the redistribution of global power centers?

By amine