Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 14-11-2024

The increasing proximity between North Korea and Russia marks a significant pivot in both nations’ foreign relations, altering the dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region and global power balance. This convergence is driven largely by mutual strategic interests: North Korea aims to secure military and economic assistance to bolster its regime, while Russia, struggling with the prolonged war in Ukraine, sees North Korea as a source of vital military support. Recent developments reveal that their cooperation is evolving from a transactional alliance into a more formalized and potentially enduring partnership, one that is shaping global responses and defense strategies, particularly for South Korea, the United States, and Japan.

 Strategic Military Cooperation and Technology Transfer

One of the most significant aspects of North Korea-Russia cooperation is the military exchange, which encompasses weapons, troops, and possibly sensitive missile technology. During Kim Jong Un’s high-profile trip to Russia in 2023, he and Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly discussed agreements that included North Korean artillery and missile support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. This collaboration is particularly concerning to the United States and South Korea, as it suggests that North Korea could gain access to advanced Russian military technology, which may further Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. Notably, the North has shown a strong interest in Russian missile guidance and propulsion technologies, which could enhance its capacity to threaten regional and U.S. assets.

Further evidence of military support includes the alleged transfer of North Korean munitions to Russia, which has been publicly condemned by the U.S. and South Korean governments. Though both Moscow and Pyongyang deny these claims, U.S. intelligence has indicated that North Korean artillery is being used by Russian forces on the Ukrainian frontlines. This development aligns with North Korea’s recent rhetoric, which condemns Western support for Ukraine and portrays Russia as a defensive force against perceived Western aggression.

 Deployment of North Korean Troops in Russia

A further layer of this alliance emerged with reports that North Korea may have deployed troops to Russia for training and potential support in the Ukraine conflict. According to the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, North Korean forces are receiving training in artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles, skills that could be used in active combat against Ukraine. This move serves multiple purposes: it alleviates Russia’s manpower constraints while providing North Korean forces with invaluable combat experience and training in advanced military operations.

The United States and South Korea have made it clear that any North Korean troops actively engaging in Ukraine would be considered legitimate targets by Ukrainian forces, underscoring the complex layers of engagement in the conflict and the risks North Korea faces by deepening its ties with Moscow. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul recently emphasized the potential ramifications of such support, arguing that North Korea’s actions are likely to prolong the conflict and threaten stability in both Europe and Asia.

 Diplomatic and Economic Ties

Beyond military cooperation, North Korea and Russia are also seeking to strengthen their economic partnership, which has largely been dormant since the Soviet era. For North Korea, which faces stringent international sanctions, Russia provides a vital economic lifeline. Experts believe that this economic assistance may include food, fuel, and financial aid, enabling North Korea to circumvent some of the financial restrictions that have strained its economy in recent years.

This partnership extends to international political support as well, with Russia increasingly shielding North Korea from global scrutiny. Russia’s veto power in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has already been leveraged to counter attempts to condemn North Korea’s missile launches, effectively providing Pyongyang with a degree of immunity from sanctions or global reprisals. This support has emboldened North Korea to intensify its weapons development efforts and pursue a more confrontational stance with South Korea and the U.S., viewing Russia as a counterbalance to international isolation.

 Geopolitical Ramifications and Regional Stability

The implications of the North Korea-Russia alliance are profound. With a more empowered North Korea, U.S. allies in the region—South Korea and Japan—are prompted to rethink their defense strategies. This has led to unprecedented levels of military cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, including expanded naval drills and joint defense postures to deter potential North Korean aggression. Recently, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reassured South Korea that it could rely on an “extended deterrence” policy, which includes potential nuclear retaliation if North Korea initiates an attack.

China’s role in this partnership also adds complexity. Although Beijing is not formally part of this alliance, China’s own strategic rivalry with the U.S. allows it to tacitly support North Korea and Russia’s defiance of Western policies. This evolving partnership effectively creates a tripartite front that could alter power structures in Asia and beyond, with implications that reach from Eastern Europe to the Indo-Pacific.

 Conclusion

In summary, the alliance between North Korea and Russia signals a dramatic shift in the regional security landscape, challenging existing alliances and forcing a recalibration of defense policies among U.S. allies. This cooperation provides North Korea with unprecedented access to technology, resources, and political protection, while Russia gains a dedicated military contributor amid its constrained resources in the Ukraine conflict.