Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations

Introduction

Donald Trump’s return to office marks a pivotal shift in U.S. domestic and foreign policy. His presidency may influence trade, military alliances, and diplomatic relations globally, with particular attention to the Middle East. Based on his past policies and recent geopolitical developments, this analysis outlines Trump’s potential priorities and the broader effects of his return.

Section 1: Immediate Domestic Priorities for Trump 

1. Economic Recovery

Trump’s initial focus is likely to center on economic recovery, particularly in light of the challenges faced by the U.S. economy in recent years. In his previous term (2017-2021), he focused on tax cuts via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and led to a growth in GDP by 2.9% in 2018. In the wake of economic recovery needs, he may push for similar tax reforms or deregulation to stimulate business growth. However, recent inflation rates and Federal Reserve data, which report inflation peaking at around 8.5% in 2022, indicate that controlling inflation will also be critical.

2. Healthcare and Education

While healthcare wasn’t Trump’s top priority in his first term, he took steps to dismantle parts of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). With healthcare premiums rising around 15% in 2023, Trump may revisit these policies, potentially advocating for more market-driven solutions. In education, policies could focus on reducing federal influence, especially as U.S. educational rankings decline compared to other OECD countries.

3. Border Security and Immigration

Trump previously strengthened immigration policies, including the 2017 travel ban on certain countries. With a recent rise in border encounters (with CBP reporting over 2.76 million encounters in FY 2022), his administration may intensify border security efforts and expand policies such as Title 42 to expedite deportations. 

Section 2: U.S.-Middle East Relations and Potential Impact

1. Iran

Trump’s previous administration withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) in 2018, re-imposing sanctions that led to a nearly 50% drop in Iran’s oil exports by 2020. His return could signal a continuation of the “maximum pressure” campaign, focusing on economic isolation. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran’s uranium enrichment reached near-weapons-grade levels (up to 60%) in 2023, and renewed U.S. sanctions or diplomatic isolation might increase regional tensions further.

2. Saudi Arabia and Gulf States

During Trump’s presidency, the U.S. made arms sales agreements worth approximately $110 billion with Saudi Arabia in 2017, strengthening defense cooperation. Given recent U.S.-Saudi tensions under the current administration, Trump might aim to renew closer ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, potentially increasing arms sales, which stood at $175 billion globally in 2022, with the Gulf States as major buyers. This closer alignment may counterbalance Iran’s influence in the region.

3. Israel-Palestine

Trump brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations. These accords increased trade and tourism between Israel and countries like the UAE, with bilateral trade reaching $2.56 billion in 2023. A Trump presidency could expand these accords to other countries, potentially reshaping alliances and impacting Palestinian relations. For example, recent polling by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research shows significant opposition among Palestinians toward normalization, suggesting potential unrest.

Section 3: Global Military Strategy and Alliances

1. NATO

Trump previously pressured NATO allies to increase their defense spending to meet the 2% of GDP target, which only 11 out of 30 member nations achieved in 2021. With rising tensions in Europe due to the Russia-Ukraine war, he may continue urging for defense budget increases, focusing on the U.S. contributing less financially. In FY 2022, the U.S. defense budget reached $813 billion, while the collective NATO defense spending was around $1.2 trillion, highlighting the U.S. burden.

2. China and Russia

Trump’s approach to China could involve renewed tariffs, as seen with the 25% tariffs on over $200 billion of Chinese imports imposed in 2018, which resulted in a trade deficit reduction of $73 billion by 2020. Regarding Russia, Trump might advocate a more diplomatic approach than recent administrations, potentially impacting NATO’s unity. However, rising U.S. intelligence reports in 2023 suggest that China and Russia have deepened military and technological cooperation, posing a unique challenge for U.S. foreign policy.

3. Counterterrorism and Regional Conflicts

Under Trump, the U.S. reduced its military presence in Afghanistan, with troop levels dropping from around 15,000 in 2017 to roughly 2,500 by 2021. In the Middle East, U.S. troop levels in Syria and Iraq might face further reductions, affecting counterterrorism efforts against groups like ISIS. Reports from the Pentagon show that ISIS retains approximately 10,000 fighters in the Iraq-Syria region, posing ongoing security concerns.

Section 4: Global Economic and Trade Policies

1. China Trade Policies

A Trump administration might restore the “America First” approach, focusing on decreasing dependence on Chinese imports. With U.S.-China trade exceeding $560 billion in 2022, tariffs on goods like electronics and machinery may return, potentially affecting global supply chains. For instance, the 2018 tariffs initially disrupted global markets, resulting in price hikes on products worldwide.

2. European Union and Brexit-Related Trade

Trump previously criticized EU trade policies as “unfair,” imposing tariffs on European steel and aluminum. In 2022, EU-U.S. trade amounted to over $1.3 trillion, representing a critical economic link. A renewed trade conflict could affect sectors from automotive to agriculture, impacting both economies. 

3. Middle East Oil and Trade

With the U.S. achieving energy independence in recent years, Trump might maintain or expand domestic oil production, reducing reliance on OPEC nations. The U.S. became a net exporter of oil in 2019, and recent production levels reached approximately 11.8 million barrels per day. However, aligning with oil-rich Gulf states could still play a strategic role in global oil pricing.

Section 5: Long-Term Global and Middle Eastern Implications

1. Shift in Global Alliances

Trump’s prioritization of U.S. interests could result in fluctuating alliances, with countries like Turkey and India potentially facing strained relations due to policy differences. For instance, U.S.-Turkey relations have fluctuated due to NATO issues and Turkey’s S-400 purchase from Russia. Turkey’s defense spending as a NATO member stood at around 1.9% of GDP in 2022, below the NATO target, which may become a focal issue.

2. Middle Eastern Stability and Political Climate

A Trump administration’s influence on Saudi Arabia and Israel could impact regional stability. Increased arms deals and alignment with Gulf monarchies may embolden regional leaders, possibly intensifying conflicts in places like Yemen, where the UN reported over 377,000 deaths by 2021. Iran’s role in Syria and Lebanon could also trigger new tensions, given the U.S.’s strong support for Israel.

3. World Opinion and Diplomatic Relations

Trump’s foreign policies have historically polarized international opinion, with Pew Research indicating that global approval of U.S. leadership fell to 34% in 2020. Renewed “America First” policies may see similar sentiments, potentially impacting diplomatic collaborations in areas like climate change, where multilateral efforts are essential.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could bring a significant shift in the U.S.’s global and domestic policies. Domestically, his administration is expected to prioritize economic recovery, immigration control, and potentially revisit healthcare reforms. His approach will likely focus on reinforcing national interests, potentially amplifying his “America First” doctrine.

Internationally, Trump’s policy on NATO funding and demands for higher European defense contributions may alter the dynamics within the alliance, while his stance on China could escalate trade tensions, impacting global markets and the supply chain. In the Middle East, his approach may reinvigorate alliances with countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel, leading to further arms deals and a potential expansion of the Abraham Accords. However, this alignment may exacerbate tensions with Iran and influence the political climate in Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon.

Long-term global implications of Trump’s presidency could include fluctuating diplomatic relationships and a potential shift in world opinion. His policies may strain partnerships with allies who favor multilateralism, particularly on issues like climate change. Yet, his transactional approach to diplomacy could also appeal to some nations seeking a pragmatic partnership with the U.S.

Ultimately, Trump’s return to the global stage may spark considerable adjustments in geopolitical alliances and economic priorities, reshaping the political and military landscape both in the Middle East and worldwide. The true scope of these changes will depend on his ability to balance America’s strategic interests with the realities of an interconnected global landscape, making it essential for both allies and adversaries to navigate this evolving environment cautiously.