By Maryam AlJumaili, Security and Military Strategic Studies Department 13-07-2024
Introduction:
In response to global shifts and escalating regional challenges, enhancing the armed forces’ capabilities through infrastructure modernization and military equipment upgrades has become imperative. This decision, announced during Army Day celebrations, marks a serious commitment to significantly elevate the proficiency and efficiency of the Tunisian army.
Why is it crucial to develop the armed forces amid current transformations and challenges?
Clear Signals: Commitment to Avoid an Arms Race
One of the first indicators of Tunisia’s recent statements’ seriousness is the country’s declared intent not to engage in an arms race with other nations. Nevertheless, there is a clear emphasis on investing in the armed forces’ capabilities, including infrastructure improvements and armament enhancement. This calls for all national sectors—citizens, institutions, companies, and economic and financial bodies—to contribute to the necessary financial support for these efforts.
The Importance of Military Modernization:
Strengthening National Security:
Enhancing military capabilities goes beyond mere strategy; it becomes a critical necessity for bolstering national security. A robust military not only safeguards the country’s territorial integrity but also serves as a pillar of stability and national sovereignty. For Tunisia, amidst a complex geopolitical landscape, a strong, well-equipped army is indispensable, acting as a deterrent against threats ranging from terrorism to external aggressions.
The Tunisian armed forces require modern equipment, advanced technologies, and sophisticated tactics to effectively counter the diverse challenges they face. Military modernization encompasses acquiring the latest weaponry and also improving infrastructure and adopting advanced defense technologies. These investments are crucial not only for maintaining military readiness but also for enhancing the overall defense posture of the nation. Central to this strategic necessity is ensuring the Tunisian armed forces are prepared to respond swiftly and decisively to emerging threats. This readiness extends beyond conventional military operations to include a comprehensive approach to national defense, integrating intelligence capabilities, cyber defense, and integrated military operations.
Furthermore, developing military capabilities aligns with broader national interests, including economic resilience and geopolitical influence. A strong defense sector can elevate national standing on the global stage. While rooted in the need for national defense, the impacts of developing military capabilities in Tunisia extend beyond military affairs alone. It forms the cornerstone of stability, sovereignty, and strategic resilience in an increasingly volatile world. By investing in modernization and equipping its armed forces with the latest technologies, Tunisia not only protects its borders but also enhances its position as a regional leader committed to peace and security.
Maintaining Sovereignty and Independence:
Historically, Tunisia has relied on military aid from Western countries, which played a significant role in shaping its defense capabilities. However, recent shifts in Tunisia’s defense strategy reflect a growing desire for independence and sovereignty in defense decision-making. This shift coincides with increasing tensions between Tunisia and some Western countries, prompting Tunisia to explore new and diverse partnerships in military armament and development.
For decades, military cooperation between Tunisia and its Western allies has been instrumental in providing essential equipment, training, and strategic support. This cooperation has bolstered Tunisia’s defense capabilities and contributed to its ability to address security and regional challenges. Nonetheless, as global dynamics evolve and geopolitical interests diverge, Tunisia is reassessing its reliance on traditional allies and seeking to diversify its sources of military equipment and technology.
Pursuing greater independence in defense matters is not merely a strategic necessity but also a reflection of Tunisia’s commitment to asserting its sovereignty and protecting national interests. Recent geopolitical tensions have highlighted the importance of strategic independence, driving Tunisia to forge new alliances and partnerships with countries aligning with its defense priorities and technological aspirations.
In this endeavor, Tunisia aims to enhance its defense industry capabilities, encourage domestic manufacturing of military equipment, and invest in research and development to foster innovation in defense technologies. By diversifying its partnerships and adopting a more independent defense posture, Tunisia seeks to strengthen its resilience against external pressures and enhance its role as a stabilizing force in North Africa and beyond.
Moreover, Tunisia’s evolving defense strategy aligns with broader economic objectives, aiming to stimulate local industries, create job opportunities, and enhance technological expertise through strategic defense investments. This approach not only supports national security but also contributes to economic development and technological advancement, positioning Tunisia as a regional leader in defense innovation and self-reliance.
Tunisia’s shift towards greater independence in defense represents a strategic evolution driven by geopolitical realities and national imperatives. By diversifying its defense partnerships and investing in domestic capabilities, Tunisia aims to assert its sovereignty, enhance its defense resilience, and contribute to regional stability in a dynamic global environment.
Historical Context: Tunisian Military Spending: Post-Independence and Beyond
The Tunisian Army and Military Policy: Historical Underinvestment
Since gaining independence, Tunisia has pursued a military policy characterized by directing resources towards economic and social development rather than armament. The late President Habib Bourguiba pioneered this approach, preferring to minimize military spending and focus on national development through infrastructure improvement and social services.
Bourguiba relied on international relations for military support when needed, allowing Tunisia to achieve relative stability without engaging in an expensive arms race. This approach continued under President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, with Tunisia relying on military support from the United States and France to maintain stability.
Military expenditures remained secondary to other national priorities, enabling Tunisia to develop its economy and strengthen social infrastructure. Despite regional tensions, particularly during Muammar Gaddafi’s era in Libya, Tunisia opted to bolster its relationships with major powers like the United States and France, seeking military assistance rather than engaging in an arms race. This strategy allowed Tunisia to maintain a delicate balance between national security and economic development.
Tunisia’s historical focus on economic and social development reflects its commitment to enhancing stability and improving citizens’ quality of life. This approach has been central to shaping Tunisia’s stance on military spending, with prudent resource allocation aimed at fostering sustainable growth and social welfare.
By maintaining a restrained military budget, Tunisia sought to balance its defense needs with broader social and economic goals, ensuring investments contributed to long-term resilience and security. Tunisia’s approach underscores a pragmatic assessment of regional dynamics and a commitment to diplomatic solutions over militarization. Prioritizing dialogue and cooperation with neighboring countries and international partners, Tunisia aimed to mitigate security threats and foster regional cooperation in addressing shared challenges such as terrorism and instability.
Foreign Support for the Tunisian Army:
During periods of regional tension, Tunisia historically relied on France and the United States Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean for strategic support. This reliance on major Western powers was particularly evident during times of heightened geopolitical instability with its neighbors. Tunisia’s strategic alliance with France and the United States emphasized a pragmatic approach to regional security challenges.
Leveraging diplomatic relations with these Western allies, Tunisia sought to maintain stability and security without compromising its developmental goals. Dependence on the Sixth Fleet and military cooperation with France provided Tunisia with critical strategic assurance during periods of uncertainty and potential conflict in the Mediterranean region.
A recently released American document highlights a 1975 meeting between former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Tunisian Prime Minister Hedi Nouira. During this meeting, Nouira emphasized Tunisia’s cautious stance on military armament, highlighting instead the country’s priority to improve living standards. He also expressed concerns about the militarization efforts of neighboring countries.
Nouira’s emphasis on Tunisia’s disinterest in military escalation and focus on social and economic development reflects a deliberate policy aimed at enhancing national resilience and societal well-being. This approach not only prioritized local priorities but also positioned Tunisia as a responsible actor in regional affairs, advocating for peaceful solutions and constructive dialogue among neighboring states.
Tunisia’s historical reliance on France and the U.S. Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean underscores its strategic navigation of regional challenges while maintaining its commitment to economic development and stability. By balancing military engagement with diplomatic initiatives, Tunisia aimed to protect its sovereignty and foster regional cooperation, reflecting a measured approach to security amid complex geopolitical dynamics.
Post-2010 Changes:
Following the 2010 revolution, the Tunisian army played a crucial role in maintaining security and preventing the country from descending into chaos during the tumultuous months that followed. Security forces abandoned their posts and went on strike for several days, highlighting significant logistical and personnel deficiencies within the army.
This revelation prompted Tunisia to recognize the urgent need for modernization, particularly through increased recruitment. In response, successive governments significantly increased the Ministry of Defense’s budget, doubling its allocations. These increases aimed to address logistical and personnel shortcomings, marking a significant step towards enhancing the army’s operational capability and readiness.
Additionally, Tunisia acquired new military equipment from Turkey and the United States, specifically targeting the fight against terrorism that has plagued the country over the past decade. These acquisitions represent a strategic move to modernize Tunisia’s defense capabilities and improve its ability to effectively respond to evolving security threats.
Despite these updates and budget increases, they have yet to amount to a “fundamental or strategic transformation” in the country’s military policy. The post-revolution period in Tunisia underscored the importance of a capable and well-equipped army in safeguarding national security and stability. While significant strides have been made in bolstering defense resources, ongoing challenges and strategic considerations continue to shape Tunisia’s approach to modernization and military readiness in a complex regional landscape.
Why Now?: Analysis of Current Challenges:
Political and Diplomatic Shifts Post-Revolution:
Tunisia has experienced profound changes in its political landscape following the decisions made on July 25, 2021, significantly impacting its diplomatic relations with international stakeholders. These changes have drawn substantial criticism from European and American entities, reflecting concerns about Tunisia’s new political direction.
The events of July 25 marked a turning point in Tunisia’s post-revolution history. The dissolution of parliament, lifting of parliamentary immunity, and centralization of executive power placed the country on a path of political uncertainty and transformation.
While these moves were justified as necessary to address corruption and economic stagnation, they elicited a mix of local support and international concerns. Internationally, Tunisia’s actions elicited mixed reactions, with European and American stakeholders expressing varying degrees of apprehension and scrutiny. The repercussions of these political shifts extend beyond domestic borders, influencing Tunisia’s relationships with key international allies and partners. This dynamic underscores the interplay between domestic political decisions and their broader geopolitical implications.
Tensions with the West and Strengthening Relations with the Eastern Bloc:
Despite tensions with the West, recent months have witnessed Tunisia strengthening its relations with Russia, China, and Iran, demonstrating the country’s readiness to engage with all international parties in a manner that serves its national interests.
In this context, Tunisia has begun exploring economic and trade cooperation opportunities with these countries, aiming to diversify its international partnerships and achieve balance in its foreign relations.
Tunisia and Russia:
Agreements have been made to enhance cooperation in various fields including energy, tourism, and technology. Bilateral meetings and official discussions between officials from both countries have resulted in the signing of memoranda of understanding and cooperation agreements, reflecting mutual desires to strengthen economic and political partnerships.
Tunisia and China:
Tunisia has seen an increase in Chinese investments in infrastructure projects and economic development. Chinese companies have participated in major projects such as road and bridge construction and improving the transportation network. This cooperation has contributed to creating new job opportunities and enhancing local economic growth.
Tunisia and Iran:
Discussions have been held to enhance cultural and educational cooperation between the two countries. Academic exchanges and cultural visits aim to strengthen relations between the two peoples and enhance mutual understanding. Additionally, opportunities for cooperation in health and agriculture sectors have been discussed, which could contribute to the development of vital sectors in Tunisia.
These tactics indicate Tunisia’s earnest efforts to expand its diplomatic and economic horizons, ensuring it does not rely solely on one entity in its international relations. This approach reflects a flexible and pragmatic strategy aimed at advancing the country’s interests politically and economically.
Security and Geopolitical Challenges in Libya:
Attention is also turning to the situation in Libya, where the Turkish-American-Russian conflict has become overt and public. Turkey’s support for western Libya, particularly the Al-Watiya military base near Tunisia, plays a crucial role.
Turkey plays a pivotal role in the Libyan conflict by supporting the internationally recognized Government of National Unity. The Al-Watiya military base is seen as a strategic point for enhancing Turkish influence in the region.
Turkey’s presence in western Libya provides it with a geopolitical advantage, enabling it to influence the course of the conflict and control vital routes and strategic areas.
Meanwhile, the United States is moving to establish a foothold in the city of Al-Khums. These tensions could escalate the conflict at any moment, necessitating Tunisia to enhance its military and defense capabilities.
Tunisia seeks to strengthen its presence in Libya by moving towards Al-Khums, reflecting its desire to secure its strategic interests and confront the growing influence of both Russia and Turkey in the region.
Establishing a foothold in Al-Khums would enable the United States to better monitor military and economic activities in the region, contributing to counterterrorism and combating organized crime.
Russia also supports forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya, complicating the security and geopolitical situation. Moscow aims to enhance its influence in the Mediterranean and secure its interests in energy and trade sectors.
In light of these movements and tensions, Tunisia faces significant security challenges that require enhancing its military and defense capabilities.
Turkey’s proximity in Al-Watiya increases security risks, especially amid the potential escalation of conflict at any moment.
American and Russian movements in Libya place Tunisia in a sensitive position that requires advanced defensive strategies to secure its borders and national interests.
Internal and Economic Challenges:
Despite the strategic importance of military development, Tunisia faces significant economic and social challenges. High unemployment, increasing debts, and economic growth slowdown all hinder achieving ambitious goals for military modernization.
These challenges make it essential for government policies to balance national security achievements with improving economic and social conditions for citizens.
Military Development Strategies and Potential Forms:
Defense and Technological Capabilities Development:
It is crucial to provide an effective air defense system to secure Tunisian airspace from any potential threats. This includes upgrading the aging fleet of American (F5) and some French aircraft.
This requires investment in advanced radar systems and modern air-to-ground missiles capable of intercepting and destroying hostile aircraft and missiles. Additionally, technological capabilities for air defense must be developed to ensure timely detection and effective handling of aerial threats.
The air fleet also needs comprehensive upgrading, including the addition of drones and modern technologies to enhance defensive and offensive military capabilities.
Drones provide a significant advantage in surveillance, reconnaissance, and precision attacks, enhancing the army’s capabilities in combat operations.
Ground and Naval Forces Upgrades:
It also requires updating the ground and naval military sectors to ensure readiness to face future challenges.
In the ground sector, updating includes renewing equipment and supplies such as armored vehicles and advanced weapons systems. Advanced training should be provided to soldiers and officers to improve their efficiency and readiness for combat operations. This training may include the use of modern technologies and advanced tactics on the battlefield.
In the naval sector, upgrading requires enhancing maritime capabilities through fleet renewal and equipping it with advanced warships and sophisticated weapon systems. This also includes improving the infrastructure of ports and naval bases to ensure effective logistical support for naval forces. Collaboration with countries like Russia and China can provide the Tunisian army with advanced technologies and modern weapons, enhancing its defensive capabilities and contributing to achieving military superiority in the region.
Funding and National Support:
Military modernization requires significant financial resources to ensure the implementation of necessary projects and plans to enhance defense capabilities. In this context, the Tunisian President called on the national group, including citizens, institutions, and companies, to participate in providing the necessary credits for army development. This call reflects a desire to achieve national solidarity to support the army and ensure its stability and ability to protect the country.
This initiative requires the collaboration of all sectors of society to achieve a common goal of securing protection and defending the homeland. This participation may include direct financial donations or logistical and technical support by large companies and institutions. The Tunisian government can also establish special financing funds to direct resources towards vital military projects.
Collaboration with the Eastern Bloc: Armament and Funding Sources.
In light of the tensions between Tunisia and the West, it seems logical that any armament for the Tunisian army would be through cooperation with Eastern Bloc countries, such as China, Russia, and Iran.
These countries could be potential sources of modern armament that Tunisia seeks as they possess advanced military technologies and extensive experience in defense, making them potential partners for Tunisia in its efforts to modernize and enhance its military capabilities.
China and Russia have immense industrial capabilities in the field of arms and military equipment manufacturing that they can support Tunisia with, through providing it with modern military technology, as well as advanced defense systems.
Despite the international sanctions imposed on it, Iran has managed to develop strong local military capabilities and can provide its expertise in areas such as drone and missile systems.
Cooperation with these countries is not limited to obtaining weapons and equipment, but also includes exchanging experiences and joint training.
The Tunisian army can benefit from joint training programs with the armed forces of these countries, enhancing the efficiency and readiness of the Tunisian forces.
Regarding funding, the national group has been mentioned as a contributor in providing the necessary credits, indicating the possibility of transferring part of the budgets of other sectors to the military sector.
The Tunisian Society and its Role in Strengthening Military Capabilities:
The call to the national group to contribute to the development of the army comes at a time when the Tunisian economy is facing major challenges.
This call reflects the Tunisian leadership’s realization of the importance of national unity in achieving strategic goals.
Citizens and institutions participating in supporting the armed forces may contribute to enhancing national spirit and achieving greater cohesion among various components of the Tunisian society.
Analysis of Future Scenarios:
Challenges and Opportunities: Pragmatic Approach and Diverse International Cooperation:
Despite the challenges facing Tunisia in military modernization, there are significant opportunities to enhance defense capabilities and achieve an advanced level that ensures the country’s protection.
In the context of geopolitical shifts and Tunisia’s new political directions, several future scenarios can be envisaged:
Enhancing Cooperation with the Eastern Bloc: Tunisia may witness further enhancement of its relations with Russia, China, and Iran, which may provide it with new sources of armament and military technology.
Rebalancing Relations with the West: Despite current tensions, Tunisia may seek to rebalance its relations with the United States and Europe, especially if military support offers are made.
Future Directions:
It is expected that the coming period will see further clarifications on military modernization strategies, funding sources, and equipment.
This modernization reflects Tunisia’s desire to keep pace with global and regional changes and achieve independence and sovereignty in defense.
Conclusion:
Tunisia is opening a new chapter in its military and diplomatic history, aiming to enhance its military capabilities amidst surrounding security and geopolitical challenges, especially with escalating tensions in Libya and its alignment with Eastern bloc countries.
After years of relying on Western military support, Tunisia appears ready to make a qualitative leap in its military armament, including infrastructure upgrades and the acquisition of air defense systems and drones.
These steps are part of a comprehensive strategy that combines bolstering national security with achieving economic and social development, calling for national participation in financing these upgrades to ensure the country’s protection and stability.
This new endeavor is not merely a military update but a step towards redefining Tunisia’s role in the region, focusing on safeguarding national interests and achieving strategic independence in a changing world.
This transitional period requires a comprehensive vision and close cooperation between the government and the people to ensure the success of these initiatives and achieve a safer and more prosperous future in Tunisia.
What steps can the Tunisian government take to ensure this balance without negatively impacting internal stability and economic progress?